Abstract

This research paper aims at investigating the ongoing arms race in South Asia. The escalating competition of arms race between Pakistan and India has enormous impacts on the stability of the region. Indian initiation of acquiring any weapon, conventional or non-conventional, Pakistan will go through the same route. Indian aspiration of acquiring a new defense system, S-400 missiles, and recent successful test of anti-satellite weapons poses a serious threat to the security and stability of Pakistan. Consequently, Pakistan will also go for the smart technological weapon. The main aim of this paper is to investigate that which reasons urge Pakistan-India to go through for adopting hazardous nuclear weapons, spending more budget of G.D.P. on defense, and modernizing the military capability in the conflict-prone region. This competition of arms race in the crisis-prone region will, no doubt, lead to the destruction of the region.

Key Words

Pakistan, Indi a, Arms race, S-400, Security

Introduction

South Asia is home to 8 countries which are India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Maldives, Sri- Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. The area of South Asia is about 2 million (miles square), and it is bounded by Southeast Asia, East Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia. It is also connected with the Indian Ocean. South Asia has three of the most populous countries, where India is the 2nd largest populated country, Pakistan is the 6th largest populated country, and Bangladesh is the 8th. The South Asian Subcontinent has great geostrategic importance, and many great powers have an espy look over it. It's an open sesame to the Indian Ocean for China, Russia, and Central Asia. It has an enormous opportunity for progress and development in every field of life, but due to the last many decades of war, the South Asian region has remained unstable and the condition of Afghanistan is a menace.

An arms race, simply defined, is the race or competition between two or more states of acquiring the weapons, menace nuclear technology and arsenal and increase the military capability. After the independence, both India and Pakistan engaged themselves in an armed conflict and fought the first war over Kashmir. Both rival states have fought three major wars and still perceived threats from each other. After the nuclear tests of India in 1974 which is known as a smiling Buddha, Pakistan also decided to achieve nuclear arsenals due to its security purposes.

Both states have threats from each other as Pakistan has a threat from India and India perceives the same threat from Pakistan and China. Both States, India and Pakistan, have engaged themselves in the competition of arms race. India develop its nuclear weapons in 1974, Pakistan also decided to develop its nuclear program. India starts a ballistic missile; Pakistan also decided to go on the same way. Russia shows a door to the S-400 defense system; Pakistan will also pursue any reliable system. So, both states have locked themselves into an arms race.

Recently, India successfully tests an Anti-Satellite test in space on March 27, 2019, and declare itself as a space power. It’s not dubious that India has a not space capability. In South Asia, India has a greater space capability and its capability is higher than the other European countries like in manufacturing, launching and maintaining the satellites in outer space and making it operationalized. India has become a space power after destabilizing the Anti-Satellite capability after the U.S. and China and it alarms the notion of deterrence in South Asia between India and Pakistan. Besides the economic deficiency, Pakistan will also go through the smart technological response to the reaction of the recent Indian test of destroying the satellite in space.

The South Asian region is going to become a hub of an arms race where India and Pakistan are in the competition of arms race and India wants to create her influence and wish to become a regional hegemonic power. The overt Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in May 1998 have a huge impact on the peace and stability of South Asia and if do not address the issues it would lead to the destruction of the region. Both countries have created an atmosphere of an arms race in the region to make themselves militarily strong.

After the independence, both the states had established their alliance with the major powers. In the current scenario, both neighboring countries have made an alliance with the third party which are the major powers of the world. India makes an alliance with a third party to improve its military capability either its civil nuclear deal or S-400 missiles deal. On the other side, Pakistan also made an alliance with China not economically but also strategically. Pakistan buys the weapons from China to ensure her security and maintain close strategic ties.

The major powers of the world have engaged themselves with the two neighboring countries of South Asia only for their regional interest. The U.S. made an alliance to create her influence in the region. Russia and China not only gives reassurance of security to the states but also to balkiness the U.S.




Statement of the Problem

After the Indian Nuclear test in 1974, both states, India and Pakistan engage themselves in an arms race and India wants to create hegemony towards the South Asian region. South Asia is facing many serious challenges regarding peace and the influence of the major powers of the world. The conflict between India and Pakistan can disturb the peace of the whole region and the Indian massive arms buildup would lead to the destruction of South Asia. The lack of trust and mutual understanding, misunderstandings, alliance with major powers and other state issues are the major challenges to the peace in South Asia and cause an arms race in the region.




Significance of the Study

The research study of the arms race aims to bring new findings related to the arms in the South Asian region. In the globalized world, South Asia where there is poverty, illiteracy at its peak; the two neighboring countries spend a large portion of the budget on defense and modernizing their military capability. In the conflict-prone region, both countries could launch nuclear missiles on the basis of wrong information which would lead to the destruction of South Asia. This research will find those reasons which have urged both states to increase their military capability. This research will also make a comparison of the military of Pakistan and India and highlight the influence of major powers. Also, investigate that how both states could alleviate the competition of arms race and what is the role of major powers in the alleviation of the arms race.




Theoretical Framework

In the theoretical framework, Neo-Realism or structural Realism is the most suitable theory for modern International Relations. This theory was first outlined in the book of “Kenneth Waltz” which was named “Theory of International Relations” in 1979. It states that by the passage of time, the behavior of the state changes due to the anarchical structure of the International World. Neo-Realism or Structural Realism is further divided into the sub-branches like security Dilemma, anarchical structure, distribution of power, Defensive Realism, Offensive Realism, Capability and National Interest. Offensive and Defensive Realism is a sub-branch of Neo-Realism. In Offensive realism, State maximizes its power and wants to dominate other states and create its own hegemony. While the Defensive Realism, to achieve its Security, States maintain its power and military capability.

This theory (Neo-Realism) states that in this international world, there’s anarchy means where you don’t find the central or governing authority. Waltz argues that world politics is anarchic in the absence of central government. It creates the situation of a “Self-help” system where the states are worried about their survival. When any state goes through an offensive position, the other state may go into the defensive or offensive position. So in this world of anarchical structure, every state feels insecure from the other state. The Offensive realism adopted by the states creates the Security Dilemma. This Offensive-Defensive encourages them to grow their military capabilities for their survival which would lead to the Security Dilemma.

The Security Dilemma, according to John Herz, “the threat of being attacked, dominated and subjugate and to escape from the impact of the power of others, the state tries to enhance and upgrade its security and power against the perceived threats and the states likely to acquire more and more power”. In the realist world, states are more worried about their security and they enhance their security and power even up to the risky extent. The states feel unsafe because the structure of International relations is anarchical and even the states go through the competition of arms and acquire hazardous weapons. (Herz 1951)




Objective

The key objective of this study is to highlight the issues which cause an increase in the arms race in the region. These are as follows:

• To highlight the factors of the arms race in the region

• To analyze the interest of major powers in South Asia

• To explore how to minimize the arms race in the region

Literature Review

A plethora of literature is easily accessible on South Asia, especially on India and Pakistan. Many research articles, journals and books have been published on this topic due to an area of interest. All these articles have been published by renowned institutions and organizations, think tanks and different opinions of great scholars.

The book “Four Crises of Peace” by P.R. Chari, Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema and Stephen P. Cohen where India and Pakistan, old rivals and nuclear neighbors and the conflict between them is wordily explained since the independence. Many times, a serious confrontation happens and brings the military personnel of both states in front of each other. It deeply explains the crisis and how they come out from the mouth of the war. During the conflict, the role of media and press coverage gravitate to the government’s position and Indian media is a bit harsher than Pakistan.

The book “investigating crisis” in which it clearly explains that South Asia has remained one of the most crisis-prone regions in the world with some of the highest degree of disputed borders, the militarized conflicted disputes between India and Pakistan, and the terrorist attacks of blaming game on each other. The continued expanding of Nuclear Warheads and their stockpiling would lead to the destruction of the region and no state would benefit from the war except destruction. This book has written by the Stimson Center which has closely studied the crisis of South Asia and inters disputes between the states.1

The research article “India-Pakistan Nuclear Equations: The need for Arms control and disarmament regime” by Muhammad Irshad describes that the efforts of the arms race between India and Pakistan have heightened the risk of nuclear holocaust. These efforts have exacerbated the situation and given rise to the arms race in the region. It can cause destructive consequences. Pakistan smartly and similarly reacts over the missiles tests of India which encourages the arms race. India and Pakistan had carried on the same number of missiles test from 1998 to 2012. Both states, Pakistan and India, are spending their much of resources on military and nuclear weapons instead of addressing their core issues like poverty, unemployment, overpopulation, lack of education and health facilities. India, almost in 220 districts, is facing serious unrest due to the socioeconomic distinct and asymmetric economic growth and same case with Pakistan as ongoing unrest in the Province of Baluchistan and continued operation in Karachi has not satisfied the internal security.

The research article “Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia: Quest for Security” by Ghazala Yasmin Jalil describe the action-reaction spiral model that any state perceive a threat from another, the state goes for acquiring the weapons either traditional or non-traditional. In this article, it is stated that if India perceives a threat from China, India go for acquiring a weapon. If Pakistan perceives a threat from India or India conduct any test or achieve any weapon, Pakistan will also go to acquire the weapons. India go for the nuclear tests in 1974, the leadership of Pakistan also go for it. India declares herself as a Nuclear Weapon state; Pakistan also carries on a test of Nuclear weapons in the same month and declares herself as a nuclear state.

The research article “Weapons of Mass Destruction and Threat to South Asia” by Tughral Yamin debriefed the conflicts and wars between India-Pakistan. After the first war over Kashmir Pakistan decided to enhance its conventional military but post-1971 war, first India initiate its nuclear program, Pakistani leadership also decided to make nuclear bombs even we have to eat grass. After the overt Nuclearization of South Asia, western analysts fear using hazardous nuclear weapons on the basis of miscalculation and misunderstanding. There is also an influence of major powers that pressurized the decisions of the states. For the strategic stability, there is also a comparison of the conventional military of India and Pakistan and India has a times higher military capability than Pakistan.




Hypothesis

“The Arms Race between India and Pakistan would lead to the instability in South Asia.”




Independent Variables

Arms Race




Dependent Variable

Impact on South Asia




Research Question

Why India and Pakistan have engaged themselves in an arms race? What is the role of major powers in the arms race in South Asia?

How to mitigate the competition of arms accelerating in the region?

Research Methodology

The study of this research is based on quantitative and qualitative. In the qualitative method, detailed descriptive data is completed. In the quantitative method, the researcher uses the tools to collect numerical data such as the number of troops, tanks, nuclear warheads and missiles have to add to the research. As the researcher has to compare and analyze the military strength of Pakistan and India and the continued arms race in the region. So, this research will follow the methods of both quantitative and quantitative research.




Data Collection

In the data collection procedure, two sources included Primary and Secondary sources.

Primary Sources

In primary sources, the methods of Interviews and governmental reports are included.




Secondary Sources

In Secondary sources, the books, research articles, journals, magazines and newspapers are included.

In this research, the data is collected by the researcher is secondary sources.

Data Analysis

India and Pakistan Involve in the Arms Race

In South Asia, the two neighboring countries have engaged themselves in an arms competition as both perceive security threats from each other. The Security Dilemma, the concept of Neo-Realism, has briefly explained the structure of the world and particularly, the action-reaction. When India initiates its nuclear program, the Pakistani Premier, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto states that “If India builds a nuclear bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, but we will get one of our own and we have no other choice”2. So, the scenario of arms competition starts between the neighboring countries when India initiates any program. In neo-realism, it is clearly stated that each state is responsible for its own security as there exists an anarchical structure. In a situation of Self- Help, each and every state should prepare for its own defense.

The state reacts to the threats into two categories, the first is internal efforts and the second is external efforts. An internal effort means “state moves to increase their economic capability, to improve military strength and develop clever strategies” and an external effort means “state moves to strengthen and enlarge one’s own alliance or to weaken or shrink an opposing one3”.

In the Sub-continent, the following issues have pushed the neighboring countries into the arms race are:

• Wars (included minor wars)

• Alliances with superpowers for military purpose

• Border Issues

• Nuclear Program

• Indian wish to create hegemony

• Development Missile Defense System

These are factors that are pushing in the arms race and in this research paper, all these issues are debriefed in the post-colonial era.




The First War

Pakistan has largely based upon those two efforts, which aforementioned, to adverse its main security threat from India. After the independence, Pakistan enlarges its conventional force to counter its adverse. India illegitimately occupied the princely states which were Hyderabad Deccan, Manawadar and Junagarh through armed forces and Pakistan Army was not prepared to conduct war with India. India, with full equipped armed personnel, enters Kashmir and illegally occupies its territories and a first war on 




Kashmir begins. After that, the rebellion group and Azad forces (Mujahedeen) supported Pakistan against India and occupy a handsome territory from India. Due to the bad situation of India in this armed conflict, India moves to the United Nations (U.N.) for a ceasefire. The United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR 39), on January 20, 1948, established a United Nations Commission on India and Pakistan (UNCIP) (Korbel 1954). This ceasefire became effective on 31st December 1948. According to UNSCR 47, after the withdrawal of belligerent forces, a plebiscite was to be held under the United Nations (Korbel 1954). After this 1st war between India and Pakistan, India moved its armed forces to the borders of Pakistan in 1950-51. The Indian wish to occupy Kashmir and to degrade Pakistan in the beginning days encourages Pakistan to increase its military capability.




Alliances and War of 1965

After the Independence, Pakistan made an alliance with the U.S. and Western organizations and became a member of SEATO and CENTO. These organizations SEATO and CENTO were meant to counter communism in Asia not India but India was always cautious about this military pacts4. In this scenario, India moved to good relationships with the USSR to balance the western alliances of Pakistan and its strategic nexus to China. The Chairman of the Council of Ministers and First Secretary of the Communist Party of Soviet Union during his visit to Srinagar, Indian Occupied Kashmir (I.O.K.) in 1955, clearly favors Kashmir to the Indian side. He expounds that “we are so near that if whenever you call us from mountaintops we will appear at your side”5. The alliances of Pakistan made after its independence did not come to its expectations. For instance, in the War of 1965 between India and Pakistan, the U.S. refuses to help Pakistan as Pakistan was expected too much from this main ally that the U.S. will back Pakistan but in vain. As the Cold War ended, the U.S. turns its face to India and favoring India’s stance on Kashmir. After this, Pakistan realizes that the U.S. is not a trusted ally. It's also one of the major reasons that lead Pakistan to acquire its own Nuclear Deterrence in the region after the failure of the external effort.

War of 1971 and Dawn of Nuclear Subcontinent

The reason for acquiring Nuclear weapons can also relate to the loss of East Pakistan in 1971. The civil war was an outburst in East Pakistan and the Indian government started offensive diplomacy to block Pro-Pakistani directives in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). During this conflict, India launched several attacks in East Pakistan to weaken Pakistan Army and initiated a war. India successful led this war and many thousands of troops came under the grip of India. East Pakistan got separation and became Bangladesh on December 16, 1971. It was the Black Day in the history of Pakistan. After this separation, Pakistan was downhearted and this sadness lead Pakistan to move towards the arms race and achieve Nuclear capability.

After the 1971 war, the leadership of Pakistan had perceived the threat of acquiring hazardous nuclear weapons by India. The “Peaceful Nuclear explosion (Smiling Buddha)” by India on May 18, 1974, stresses the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to initiate its own nuclear program to counter India. The Chairman of PAEC (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission) Munir Ahmed Khan stated that “the test would force Pakistan to tests its own Nuclear Bomb”6. In the era of President Zia-Ul-Haq, Pakistan had achieved its nuclear weapons but did not test them overtly. In May 1998, India overtly tested its Plutonium based nuclear weapons and declare herself as a Nuclear state. After the Indian Nuclear Test, the Indian government used harsh language against Pakistan and threatened sovereignty. The Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in a statement declare that India is Nuclear Weapon State and would not feel hesitant from using nuclear weapons if attacked7. The Indian Minister in Charge of Kashmir L.K Advani, also stated that India will take Pakistani controlled Kashmir8. After a few weeks of Indian Nuclear Tests, Pakistan also tests its nuclear weapons in the Chaghi district of Baluchistan and declared it as a nuclear state. By testing the nuclear weapons, Pakistan gives a timely response to India and India prohibiting by using harsh language against Pakistan.

The Indian National Advisory Board released a draft in August of the Indian Nuclear Doctrine that is based on the triad nuclear forces mean air, land and submarine delivery system and they claim that they have a No-First use policy.

The other issues which also responsible for the cause of an arms race in the region are misunderstandings and miscalculations and these heightened the tensions. The Kargil clash in 1999, where there was a mini-war between India and Pakistan under the Nuclear Umbrella, the 2001-2 border confrontation, attack on the Indian parliament, Mumbai Attack 2008, Uri attack and Ballakot incidents, Pulwama attack and the conduct of Anti-Satellite test also encourages both states to increase their military capability. Both states engage themselves in buying weapons from major powers and go on testing the hazardous Missiles due to fear of insecurity.




Developments of Missiles and Ballistic Missiles Defense

The other issues which created an atmosphere of the arms race in the region are the weapons agreements from major power of the world like Indo- the U.S. Nuclear Deal, buying of S-400 missiles from Moscow, development of Ballistic Missiles Defense (B.D.M.). India develops missiles based on air, land and sea, Pakistan follows the same route. Pakistan is also aiming to develop second-strike capability in comparison to the Indian wish of developing the second strike capability like the tests of Babur-3, a Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM) in 2017(Jalil 2017). The Indo- U.S. Nuclear deal in 2005 opens the door for India to trade freely with the U.S. for Civil Nuclear Cooperation. Under the N.S.G., Pakistan prohibits Nuclear trade but India is awarded special reference by America. It raises many questions for Pakistan because India can enhance its Nuclear and Strategic capability.

A former Ambassador to the U.S, Maleeha Lodhi stated that “These actions significantly enhanced India’s ability to expand its strategic arsenal and capabilities and accelerated its quest for ways to overcome the strategic deterrence established after 1998. India was enabled to increase its fissile material stocks qualitatively and quantitatively. This reshaped Pakistan’s threat perceptions and determined its position on Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) negotiations in the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament (Jalil 2017).” 9 In reaction, Pakistan also speed up its Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material production.

Since the 1990s, India is also developing its Ballistic Missile Defense including Prithvi Air Defense and Advanced Air Defense for high altitude and low altitude interception respectively. India is aiming to acquire such a BMD system of radar which can track a range of 600-800 km and aiming to extend 1500km; It means that such radar would be able to track missiles & objects almost in the whole territory of Pakistan (Jalil 2017). India also buys S-400 Air Defense System from Russia which has the ability to shoot down the cruise missile. In this reaction, Pakistani Military Officials said that Pakistan also develops its capable delivery system, increase its Nuclear Warheads, short and medium-range missiles, develop cruise missiles and Nasr to maintain its deter.

India as a Space Power

After the Pulwama incident, where both states came to the edge of war in February 2019, India conducts a successful test of destabilizing an Anti-Satellite test on March 27, 2019. It's not dubious that India has a not efficient space capability. In South Asia, India has a greater space capability and its capability is higher than the other European countries like in manufacturing, launching and maintaining the satellites in outer space and making it operationalized. India has become a space power after destabilizing the Anti-Satellite capability after the U.S., Russia and China and it alarms the notion of deterrence in South Asia between India and Pakistan. India is such a state who conducts this test on her own "live satellite". The other superpowers conduct their tests on disabled satellites10. As India conduct this test, besides the economic deficiency, Pakistan will also go through the smart technological and Political response to the reaction of the recent Indian test of destroying the satellite in space. This test has challenged the strategic culture of South Asia and raises many concerns.




Role of major Powers in Arms Race instead of Arms Control

In the subcontinent, Pakistan and India move to the external effort to form an alliance with major powers of the world. Basically, the superpowers also have their own regional interest. The interest of the third party created such a strategic culture that South Asia move towards the arms race instead of an arms control.

After the Independence, Pakistan made an alliance with the U.S. and India form an alliance with Russia for their national interest. The U.S. did not support Pakistan during the war with India in 1965 and after that Pakistan divert its face to China. Now in the current scenario, China backs Pakistan and Pakistan has close ties with China, not militarily but also economically and its prime example is China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Both States have engaged themselves in the competition of Arms Race. The interests of superpowers U.S., China and Russia are briefly described as follows:




Regional Interest of Moscow

The geostrategic location of South Asia is such captivating that it attracts other powers. Russia has a regional interest in the subcontinent after the colonial era. By the Passage of time, It makes an alliance with India and Pakistan for its own benefit. In 1979, the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan to create its hegemony in South Asia. Basically, USSR wants to spread communism and want to take control of Afghanistan to create its influence in South Asia. Soviet Union was defeated by the Mujahedeen with the help of Pakistan, Saudi-Arabia and the U.S.

In the current Scenario, India buys the S-400 Air Defense System which increases the military capability of India. This Defense system has the capability to shoot down the cruise missile which alarms the notion of Deterrence. India buys these weapons by signing an agreement of $5.2 billion. Correspondent, The Russian Analyst stated that Russia is not selling the S-400 missile system to earn the billions of Dollars actually these S-400 missiles will be used as a geopolitical weapon against America and its allies. This has created the system-building of an arms race between India and Pakistan because Pakistani officials stated that they will respond by acquiring more Nuclear-Capable Missiles.




Regional Interest of United States

The U.S. also made alliances with Pakistan and India in the Subcontinent for its own interest. During the Soviet-Afghan War, the U.S. gives aid to Pakistan to support and trained the Afghan mujahedeen to fight against the Soviet Union. Additionally, Pakistan also buys an F-16 from the U.S. during the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s. The post 9/11 attack, the U.S. starts a 'War on Terror' and started a military operation in Afghanistan against those Taliban (Mujahedeen) who supports him during the Soviet-Afghan war. The U.S.A. still continues its presence in Afghanistan for the regional Interest. The U.S. also go through the Civil-Nuclear deal with India and many times the U.S. sell its weapons to India and Pakistan.

China’s Regional Interest

In the Subcontinent, China and India are two rival states but it has close strategic ties with Pakistan not militarily but also economically. China helps Pakistan in acquiring Nuclear weapons. China also sold its combat vehicle aircraft to Pakistan. In this context, Pakistan is a larger importer of the Chinese weapons and China ensure Pakistan for its support in both peace and war. Currently, Pakistan and China are working on CPEC to protect their economic interests. As Pakistan has close ties with China, India form a strategic alliance not with Washington but also with Moscow. Recently, India buys an S-400 missile defense system from Russia which has the ability to shoot down the cruise missile. The following reports are shows the comparison of the military of both states.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report 2019, India spends 2.1 per cent of its G.D.P. mean $57.9 billion (4 trillion Indian rupees) on its defense budget in 2018. India has about 1.24 million active troops. In 2018, Pakistan allocated $11.2 billion (1.26 trillion Pakistani Rupees) or 3.6% of its Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) on its defense budget. Pakistan has 653,800 active troops. According to the reports of 2019, Pakistan was also allocated $100 million in foreign military assistance. According to these reports, Pakistan annually spends 16.7% of its government expenditure on defense and compare to India, 9.1% of India’s annual government expenditure was spent on defense (SIPRI 2018).

As both states are nuclear-weapon states and both have nuclear arsenals of more than 100. According to the reports, Pakistan has about 140-150 nuclear weapons, compared to neighbor states, India has 130-140 nuclear warheads (SIPRI 2018). Pakistan has more Nuclear Warheads, as compared to India, to maintain its deterrence. Both the states, India and Pakistan, are not the signatories of the N.P.T. in the risky regional security environment. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is a treaty of arms control to prevent the spread of hazardous Nuclear Weapons. Pakistan and India are not the signatories as this treaty accept only those states as Nuclear Weapon State who conducts their test before 1968.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), both states have capable ballistic missiles carrying nuclear weapons. There are nine operational missiles to India like Agni- 3 with a range of 3000km to 5000km 11. According to CSIS, Pakistan has built its nuclear program with the help of China which includes mobile short and medium-range weapons. Pakistani missile Shaheen 2 has the longest range of up to 2000km (CSIS 2018).

According to the report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), India has a strong Army and it has more than 3,565 battle tanks, 9,719 pieces of artillery, 3,100 fighting infantry vehicles and 336armored personnel carriers12. Pakistan has 2,496 Tanks, 4,472 Artillery Guns, 1,605 armored Personnel Carriers and 375 self-propelled howitzers (IISS 2018). In Air Force, India has 814 combat aircraft including MiG-21 with 127,200 personnel while Pakistan has 425 Combat Aircraft including F-16 American fighting falcon jets and Chinese F7-PG (IISS, Military Balance 2018).

 







Table 1. Comparison of Pak-India Military Strength

	Pakistan Army	Indian Army
Defense Budget	$11.2 bn in 2018	$57.9 bn in 2018
Armed Forces	653,800	1.44 million
Tanks	2,496	3,565
Nuclear Warheads	140-150	130-140
Aircrafts	814	425

The aforementioned facts of Pakistan and India’s military clearly shows that Pakistan follows the same route of acquiring the weapons where India goes and both states achieve these hazardous weapons with the help of major powers e.g., the U.S., Russia, China. Major Powers have their regional interest in South Asia to support their ammunition industry, to continue their influence, to keep an eye on other states. In South Asia, Russia invades Afghanistan for its regional interest, U.S. declares 'War on Terror' after 9/11 for interest and still remains in Afghanistan for its interest.



Alleviate the Competition of Arms Race

In South Asia, there is a need for time to change the strategic environment of the subcontinent. In competition with India, Pakistan should pull out itself from this security framework so that it can reduce the culture of the arms race in which Pakistan is engaged with India. The current economic situation of Pakistan is such a menace that the livings of the common man have become very hard and cannot afford conventional or non-conventional weapons. India is the largest country in South Asia with a supersized economy and defense budget many times higher than Pakistan. It’s very hard for Pakistan to compete with India in an arms race due to the massive economy and defense budget. The nuclear deterrence of Pakistan is sufficient for him to deter India and can protect its sovereignty. Pakistan doesn’t require to contend each weapon of India which she develops or buy from any state. If it continues it can increase the risks of threat in the subcontinent. Similar India should also mitigate its weapons development whether it is conventional or non-conventional. The growing capability of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile systems of India have perceived threat in Pakistan. India should realize that it is better not for itself but also for the whole region to abstain from arms development. The Indian wish to isolate Pakistan at the international forum and naming Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism would not get succeed.

Both the neighboring countries should address the crisis and other minor issues to alleviate the tensions and security threats. Both the countries need to start the work on improving their bilateral relations. The dialogue process, which starts in the President Musharraf era, was suspended after the 2008 Mumbai attack. The conflict management forum should be introduced to address the misunderstandings and miscalculations between them and revive the dialogue process. Pakistan and India should improve their relations by ignoring minor issues.

Both states should adopt such a policy to prevent misunderstandings, miscalculations and other state issues. These are as follows:

1. International Treaties

2. Confidence Building Measures (CBMS)

3. Avoiding the Possibility of Nuclear Exchange

4. Avoid communication Gap and Revive Dialogue

5. Peace Gesture




International Treaties

Many international treaties and agreements have been signed to prohibit the use of Nuclear weapons and technology like N.P.T., CTBT, FMCT, Wassenaar Agreement, Australian group. Due to the U.S. support, India has got the membership of MTCR, WA, and A.G. which have shown the door to get the full membership of N.S.G. China and Pakistan opposed that India will use these agreements to enhance its nuclear weapons and technology which would lead to the destruction of the Subcontinent. The three major powers can help both states to lessen their arms race and can accommodate to address their issues to mitigate the competition of arms race. The third-party can contribute to diluting the atmosphere of the arms race. Both States can also address their problems. Post Pulwama incident, Pakistan freed its Indian Air Force Pilot as a goodwill gesture. 




Confidence Building Measure

Pakistan and India, both rivalry states should form a forum where they can address the issues. Both states have already formed a Confidence Building Measure (CBMS) and further, they should expand it. Both the countries should exchange the list of their conventional and non-conventional weapons and officially sign an agreement where they are bound not to attack each other’s sensitive areas. As both countries know they are facing poverty in their counties. Every day many people sleep hungry due to poverty. Despite spending money on defense, they should spend it to alleviate unemployment, improve their education and health sectors.




Avoiding the Possibility of Nuclear Exchange

Both states should ensure that they are nuclear states and that Nuclear Deterrence is an integral part of defense and security. So, the possibility of nuclear exchange must be eliminated especially in periods of tensions and crisis. Both states have formed a hotline to expound the conflict along the Line of Control (L.O.C.), Working Boundary and Line of Actual Contact (LOAC). Both states should share a draft of any weapons they acquire so that both should avoid misunderstandings and misperceptions about the missiles, BMD and nuclear arsenals.13




Avoid Communication Gap and Revive Dialogue

Both the neighboring countries should avoid communication breakdown. In periods of crisis and tensions, both states should make some communications to remove their misperception about each other. International organizations like U.N., SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), S.C.O. (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) should encourage both states to engage themselves in the dialogue process as both states are nuclear states and wrong decisions in the time of conflict can give bad consequences.




Peace Gesture

Post Pulwama incident, where India try to isolate Pakistan in the International forum and claim to kill 300 terrorists in the Pakistani territory by the fake surgical strike. In the retaliation process, Pakistan conducts an air raid and shoots down its two fighter jets. As a consequence, one Indian pilot was being captured alive by the Pakistani forces. Despite blackmailing India, the Pakistani government decided to release the Indian pilot as a peace gesture. After this decision, the threat of war was faded and Pakistan shows the behavior of maturity to maintain the peace of South Asia. As Pakistan release its fighter pilot as a goodwill gesture, then India should also display the behavior of tolerance towards Pakistan. If both states can solve their disputes peacefully by using the policy of compromise, both states can maintain an atmosphere of prosperity and peace.

Conclusion

The South Asian region is a crisis-prone region in the world where there are the highest levels of challenging borders and militarized interstate disputes. The arms race between Pakistan and India has continued their expansion of Nuclear arsenals, a stockpile of fissile material and contemporaries their conventional military which has added risk of war in the crisis-prone region. The major powers can contribute to de-escalating the conflict between India and Pakistan and it can ensure the mitigation of an arms race between the contested states. Combativeness doctrine and the aggressive arms race is counterproductive and it is not in the interest of anyone as it does not accommodate the security of Pakistan or India and it would lead to the escalation of nuclear arm conflict.

The terrorism-related incidents can blow/drag India-Pakistan into the wars. The latest example is posting the Pulwama incident when an Indian convoy of vehicles was being attacked in Pulwama district, Kashmir and India blame Pakistan. This incident drags Pak-India into the edge of war. Indian claims of a fake surgical strike into the Pakistani territory and killing of around 300 terrorists (H. H. Sameer Lalwani 2018). In Pakistani retaliation, India lost its jet and pilot Abhinandan. After this retaliation, Pakistan released its pilot as a goodwill gesture of peace as war is not in benefit for both states in the South Asian region. Western Analysts fears that the wrong intelligence and fake information could lead both states to the edge of nuclear war.

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