Abstract

As the most major program under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is considered to be the most vital. The deal between Pakistan and China was signed in April of this year. In terms of economic and strategic advantages, the CPEC project helps both nations, and it has the potential to alleviate Pakistan's economic woes to an even greater extent. This effort, on the other hand, is confronted with a number of internal and external obstacles, including major threats to its growth and long-term survival. As a result of the current economic slump, this research largely examines the external issues that it presents. Overall, the struggle between China and the United States is depicted in broad strokes, as are a strategic collaboration between India and the United States, as well as the scale of the most difficult danger to terrorism, which ranges from instability to Afghanistan. Using the findings of this study, we can better understand and react to anti-CPEC propaganda.

Key Words

CPEC, China-Pakistan Relationship, Regional Politics, BRI

Introduction

The "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) project is China's reimagining of the ancient Silk Road. China will be able to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean via  the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with this project (CPEC).. The Indian Ocean currently has an important position in the worldwide market for imports and exports, but direct access to China was previously unavailable. CPPC's project, however, has made direct access to China possible. President Xi of China visited Islamabad in 2015 to begin implementing the CPEC projects and 51 major memorandums of understanding were signed during his visit, including the development and upgrading of railway and energy infrastructure, as well as the construction of industrial parks. The total cost of various CPEC projects was estimated at $ 46 billion, but that figure has now increased to $ 62 billion due to the addition of other development projects, which are expected to be completed in three to fifteen years. Pakistan sees CPEC as both an economic investment and a strategic counterbalance to India's growing military and economic strength. CPEC, for China, is an important alternative route for its coastlines along Malacca Strait. CPEC provides economic and trade opportunities for regional states such as Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia.(Shah, 2017b)

As China launches plans to expand its economic policies around the world, internal and external threats against those plans are also increasing. With China's development of global economic policies, Chinese citizens in overseas countries, as well as Chinese citizens and Chinese specialists working on various projects, are at increased risk. In which separatist groups, including various terrorist groups, are increasing the risk of these projects. Although more than one hundred countries have been involved in China's economic program under the Belt and Road Initiative, the CPEC project  is still a challenge to China and Pakistan , despite huge economic and political investment. China urges host countries to increase their security by protecting their citizens and workers working on various projects. When officially work start on the CPEC in 2015, the military and civilian counterparts of Pakistan and China agreed to support the project and agreed to provide a safe environment for Chinese investors and their working people. The Pak Army has played an important role in the overall security framework of CPEC since its inception.  Military cooperation is an important factor in the continuation of Pak-China relations, and the dynamics around the CPEC confirm this widely. At the regional level, China, Pakistan, and its military have incorporated several multilateral forums and international organizations, which are poised to increase coordination on the BRI security-related pillar, in particular, Pakistan's involvement in the multilateral cooperation and coordination mechanism. The gathering of troops from Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Tajikistan and strengthening co-operation against terrorism among the four countries is proof that the military component plays a role in securing the CPEC, not only nationally but as well as regionally. Non-state actors in Pakistan are currently posing a threat to the CPEC project that China is deeply concerned about. Pakistan is under a lot of pressure, especially because of the links between Uighur fighters and Pakistan's jihadist elements. As China's economic footprint in Pakistan increases as a consequence of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), so do the security concerns to its interests and personnel. Because of security concerns, valid facts and figures are not available, but it is estimated that 30,000 Chinese nationals residing in Pakistan. "The challenges of security are increasing because of the large number of Chinese citizens coming to Pakistan," said a senior police official in Lahore. (Abbas, 2011)

The Chinese Embassy in Islamabad claimed in October 2017 that our ambassador had been under threat of attack and requested additional security. According to a report by a Chinese think tank, the CPEC might become a new field of confrontation in Pakistan between divided political parties, government levels, the military, the general public, and ethnic groupings. The Pakistani military has wanted additional authority over critical aspects of the project, deeming it a national security priority. 

The project's Long-Term Plan (2017-2030), issued in December 2017, identifies it as an "axis of growth and a strip of development, "a complete transport corridor, and the Pakistan-China" Between industrial collaboration as the major axis and concrete economic and trade cooperation. The plan identifies four goals for Pakistan: the Gwadar port, energy, transportation infrastructure, and industrial cooperation, all of which would help to accelerate the country's industrialization and urbanization processes. According to the CPEC timeframes, short-term plans would be finished by 2020 at the earliest. The completion of medium-term plans, which include industrial systems, is expected by 2025, while the completion of long-term plans is expected by 2030. It still provides hardly any details on the plans and agreements planned and proposed.

At the strategic and political levels, China and Pakistan have traditionally worked closely together. Now, the two countries are attempting to deepen their bilateral economic cooperation. This effort has received positive reviews in both countries; however it is not without issues. In May 2013, China proposed the corridor idea for the first time. In April 2015, Chinese President Xi  paid a visit to Pakistan, and the two countries decided to expand their partnership to a "all-weather strategic partnership.".From the perspective of China, cooperation in the fields of security and economics are inextricably linked, and advancements on one can strengthen the other.(Shah, 2017b)

 The political,ambassadorial, defense, and trading relations between Pakistan and China started from the day when Pakistan came into being in 1947. The fairness of this relationship can be observed from the point that China has accepted Pakistan as her trading partner.The ambassadorial and political relationship between Pakistan and china got from roots in 1963.The agreement of 2006 in Beijing based on the 'free trade agreement' FTA is also important for both countries. This agreement facilitated Pakistan to get a trading approach to the market of China and Pakistan started to export different products to China.

 This FTA based agreement can strengthen both countries financially, politically, and socially and can make Pak-China regions prosperous and rich on the world map . Pakistan also shows great enthusiasm towards the project.

In 2013, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang paid a visit to Pakistan and floated the idea for China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC. The historic agreement was signed in April 2015 between China and Pakistan on the mega project. It has been under discussion in the political houses of Pakistan since it's signed. This agreement chained with the development sector of both the countries. This mega  project plan to connect the South West Gawader city of Pakistan to Northwest Kashgar city of China. This mega project will prove the driver for connecting to south Asia to East Asia and also play leading regional integration among China, Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. The very first time China invest 45 $ billion rupees mega-investment in any foreign country and also a big investment in Pakistan vice versa. Under this project, the 3000 km route involve constructing the highways, railways and pipelines from Gawader to Kashgar for supply of oil and gas to the Chinese need to develop their economy resources. Except it, China outlined under this project of CPEC ,other 30 projects so far in the Pakistan ,in which 34$billion rupees would be provided to energy crises while round about 11$ billion rupee for the communication and infrastructure development in Pakistan.

Due to internal threats in Pakistan, the investment of foreign exporters count down and now less than 1 $ billion per year recorded. This mega project of CPEC is the great need for the economical development of China, because the Chinese  economic were developed average 10% per year since thirty years, which is not ordinary in the world economical zone. The manufacturing and industrialization zone are two big poles of Chinese economical zone, which contribute the 46% share in every year. In 1980, the GDP rate was 944 per capita income and 2014 it increase to 13800 per capita income, which is unbelievable jump in last thirty year by China.(Publishers, 2015)

This figures shows incoming day's China has a big need for energy resources which imported from other countries now. So the CPEC is the golden leaf deal between China and Pakistan, estimated over three billion people will get benefit in this region.

This project consists on other projects which have for all units of Pakistan. The first project  will consist of the road from Gwadar to China’s North Eastern city of Kashgar, which is 3000 km away from Gwadar .This route will prove easy and shortest for China economy is compare to long maritime route of strait of Malacca towards China distance 14500km.(Affairs et al., 2016)

Due to this great deal Pakistan will be able to sustain the energy crises which have increasing demand day by day. Except it, economic policy of Pakistan will free the US and other international institutions which pay the loans on heavy interest with demanded do more and imposed heavy taxes on the industrial zone and also daily usage goods by finance department on the orders of those institutions. The results are shown to common peoples will come under stress. 

It is became in this project it has also been decided that there will be a railway track and road constructed from Kashgar to Gwadar. The seashore of gawader has also got importance became of ‘deep sea’. nowadays Gawader port is completely functional and this port has been given to China in 2007.(Scheme et al., 2015)

Keeping the importance of Gwadar port in mind, we know that its expansion work is continuing constantly. This port is now a deep water sea and the most important commercial point .This port will be a primary gateway to the Middle East and Africa.

This railway track of CPEC and way fare will open the doors of business in the Middle East through Gwadar port .In this position,, a high way of about 2700 km will be constructed,, and a railway track along with gas and oil pipeline will be stretched from Gawler passing through Khunjraab pass up to Kashgar city of China, one of the portent trading centers of China. Through this high way, all the main cities of Pakistan will also be linked to it. It is also possible that in the the future this project may be connected with Afghanistan, ran and India for import and export through road and railway track.

In Pakistan, load shedding /shortage of energy are the hindrances for the proper progress. This problem of energy crises can be solved with the assistance of China. With the help of this mega project, different power plants will be established with the full assistance of China in all provinces of Pakistan. In this regard most of the major problems of Pakistan will be solved. The establishment of power plants with the cooperation of China will produce 21690 MW electricity per year. After the completion of the energy-based plans, the main problem of energy crises will be eliminated thoroughly .obviously, this will help Pakistan to make industrial factor functional and Pakistan's economy will be strong and developing.

 China itself is interested in this project and tries its level best to complete this project as soon as possible. The commerce of Pakistan is disturbed because of energy crises but after this completion of this project Pakistan factories and industries will be reduced at certain percentage.

Nowadays ,middle class peoples of Pakistan is facing certain financial problems and Pakistan‘s is wholly and solely dependant on economy The loan of international departments .nowadays does Pakistan do it only enforces sales taxes on different items after every six months and prices of daily used items is increased day by day and lower middle class suffers a lot from idem .  It is because every kind of business and commerce is dependent on the energy directly or indirectly.

It is also estimated that from the beginning to the completion of this project approximately three million people will be employed .This will also be a proper financial support for Pakistan. This project is not only beneficial for Pakistan but it is important for China as well .Through this project,, China can protect itself from energy crises in the future,, and it also can be a world's most financial power full state. Including China, Pakistan import and export will be profitable and developing in the world. This project will bring prosperity in Pakistan. This will make different countries satisfied to invest in Pakistan will out any fear of loss and risk. Through this project, poverty will be alleviated, and terrorism will be eliminated because poverty supports terrorism through different angles. This project will bring to end different social and financial problems of Pakistan.

Similarly, China's importance at world level will be realized and china will compete financially with the countries of west .china will achieve its full partnership at world level. In this article, have to see how much enthusiasm and china has got at the the local level and parochial motivation. Apart from this what are threats from neighboring countries .of china and there important points must also be discussed.

Methodology

This research paper applies a qualitative technique to investigate various issues and aspects concerning the threat to Pakistan's China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Findings and Discussion

Pol?t?cal and Econom?cal Constra?nts

It is also the effected of the friendship of Pakistan and China that whenever Pakistan faces any problem, China appears to be the closest supporter. It may be war of 1965 or fronting field of Kargil war or flood of 2010, China proved to be the best supporter .as it is the huge financial investment of China ,so China is also anxious for the completion of this project and China is worried about the internal threats for this project. These threats can be disturbs this CPEC project internally .this project is bond to the policymaker institutions of Pakistan and the economy of Pakistan is the future .This project also depends on the economic position of Pakistan. if look into their threats attentively , know that all the political parties of Pakistan ,China has been creating harmony and friendly relationships with China .There is also a threat from nationalist parties of Baluchistan who want to adjust their people directly in this mega project because every political party of Baluchistan keeps its importance as key stake holders .It is also clear that if any project is completed without their agreement, its result will become un satisfactory in future .Including these nationalist parties ,military establishment is also a key stakeholder in this whole project. If observe deeply  see that China has faith in the military establishment of Pakistan as compared to nationalist parties, because the military has proved as a defense supporter from Pakistan .That is why bilateral relationship of both countries remains strongly, authentic and trustworthy.




Reg?onal Involvement in Baluch?stan

Balochistan's strategic location makes it a vital region.The shortest and most direct way to the province is via the Arabian Sea.Major international and regional players, such as China, have expressed interest. The importance of Balochistan is recognized by major countries such as India, the United States, Iran, the Central Asian Republic (CARs) and Afghanistan. Every regional player wants to take advantage of this region in order to advance his geopolitical. Geographical connections of Pakistan are moving development and expansion of the Gwadar port to Balochistan as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A fully operational Gwadar port will boost Pakistan's trade and connection with oil-rich Gulf States, CARs, Afghanistan, China, and the rest of the world, boosting the country's regional importance. For Pakistan's social and economic progress, this is a game-changer. Natural resources of the province include marble, chromite, fluorite,Barite, asbestos, garnet, vermiculite, gold, copper and iron are globally known and count as valuable assets.

Baluchistan is Pakistan's largest province in area but the smallest on the basic of population .if compare this provinces socially and economically to the other provinces of Pakistan, this province is backward and almost ruined. although there are many minerals resources in Baluchistan, it is suffering from poverty because there is low population and not many skilled masses .This province is also neglected at the federal level of government and not many efforts are being taken for the development and prosperity of this province .Therefore ;we can say that the complete infrastructure of this province is destroyed, and local people of this province have grievances from the state and for removing their grievances ,Pakistan government is trying hard and taking different steps .but still there threats are in the minds of people at root level.(Shah, 2017b)

The availability of natural resources in Balochistan and the surrounding regions attracts to the United States just as much as it does to its near neighbours, Iran and Afghanistan, making it a good location to keep an eye on China, Russia, and the CARs. Balochistan provides an open way to the Arabian Sea for these countries, as well as a short available route for the shipment of their oil and gas. The United States is also concerned about the possibility of Gwadar approaching China's shipping lanes and entering the hot waters of the Indian Ocean. According to Pakistani media, the Chinese navy will be ready to guard the ports along with the Pakistani navy in Gwadar, as well as the coastal routes. Pakistan and China also wish to minimize the Indian Navy's growing influence in the Indian Ocean, and the Chinese navy will now be accessible in the Indian Ocean to challenge the US Navy's station in Diego Garcia, which is located South of Gwadar. The United States fears that China can still set up a military base in Gwadar, although there is currently no such plan. But that may be possible in the future. Second, Balochistan has a long border with Iran, in which a large group of Sunni Baloch population is inhabited. Iran is concerned that the United States' involvement in the current insurgency in Balochistan may turn Iranian Baloch against the government. Serious incidents on the Pakistan-Iran border (Iran's Sistan and Baluchistan province of Pakistan) have happened in recent years, resulting in the deaths of Iranian border guards. Baloch nationalist supporter American Congresswoman Diana Rohrabacher organised and hosted a meeting on Balochistan in Congress, telling Americans that "Baloch is a natural ally of the United States, and wants to share the port of Gwadar with the United States.(Daily, n.d.)

The United States knows that if it does not maintain its economic supremacy in the Indian Ocean or the region, it will fill China. The United States is already concerned about China's growing power."To sustain its dominating maritime power, naval capabilities, which are important to the flexible projection of US power and influence worldwide, must be protected" through its Gwadar port and Balochistan coastline.(Shah, 2017a)

The presence of the Chinese navy in the Arabian Sea has left the United States in trouble. This poses a threat to its decades-long domination in the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean. The United States wants hegemonic naval power around the world, not only to limit it to the Atlantic or Pacific seas but also to include the Indian Ocean. Through Gwadar port, the CPEC signature project would undoubtedly improve China's economy by utilising the resources of Balochistan, the Middle East, and Africa. It's unsurprising that the United States, as the world's sole superpower, wants to play a key role in the next great game as well.  The United States, the United Kingdom, and other NATO countries are competing for influence, power, dominance, and profit in Central Asia and Transcaucasia with Russia, China, and other SCO member states. For this, the United States had to face the potential threat to China, which would pose even more danger to CPEC, which would worsen Pakistan's internal situation. Pakistan's strategic location as a gateway to Central Asia's oil and gas resources means that it will be a battleground for future interests. The great game will continue until for next many decades.

Although this CPEC project can change the destiny of the peoples of Baluchistan, if peoples will engage, there is the problem of handling this project honestly .The nationalists of this provinces ask for the employment of their people in this project; if their peoples are not well skilled, the state must provide training on emergency bases .if people of Baluchistan are not employed favorably, there this project may possibly be disturbed.

The state of Pakistan must remove the threats from the minds of Bloch peoples and facilitate them properly so that this project should be successful .even though peoples of Baluchistan are to be employed in different industries and factories, the rest of population will also get assistance from this project .if Pakistan takes emergency based measures for the improvement of education, then the misconceptions of Balochi peoples can be removed at a certain point.

At present, there are different uproars about the project, it is demonstrated that the proposed routs should be favored .in this way local peoples will get profits and benefits.

No doubt, after the completion of this project, the Chinese people will be financially strong and similarly people of Pakistan must get same financial aid that are considered as the gate way of this project. After the completion of this project, the long maritime route will be reduced to 2500 km from Gwadar to Kashgar and obviously it will be in favour of China. there will be profit of million dollars for china and time duration for traveling will be reduced .it also will be a political success of china in the world .both the countries will get benefits from this project .now it is responsibility of Pakistan to get the people of Baluchistan satisfied and engage most of the masses of Baluchistan in this project and should try to fulfill their demands so that, this project can be completed without constrains.

After the completion of this project,, China will get direct access to the international market of Europe and central Asia and china's province of Ziyang will directly be connected with Russia ,Europe and Pakistan. This project will start from Gawler and will pass through the cities of Sindh ,Panjab,Khaber Pakhtoon Khwa and Gilgit Baltistan and finally will be connected with China through Khunjraab pass.

First of all this project is started from the east of Gawader, so it becomes easier for China to bring the required martial and machinery.

Pakistan has identified three routes for Chinese cargo: the eastern alignment (passing mainly through central Punjab and Sindh), the central route (passing partly through Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and hitherto unconnected parts of Punjab and Sindh) and the western alignment (passing through the relatively underdeveloped areas of Khyber-Pakhtun Khwa and Baluchistan).

Due to terrorism threats and protection of Chinese workers and engineers, the first batch of Pakistan Reverie Amphibians police force (RAPF) to establish for the protection of parts of CPEC and also workers.(SeSe 1, 2020). This force will stop the penetrate of Baloch insurgents along with track and counter to all un expected threats .there will be 1650 RAPF will be appointed, the first of this batch 700 constables were enrolled for training under the Chinese police at police college of Sihala .after completion they will be posted in different districts of Punjab  in which ,Attock,Mian Wali,Bakkar,Layyah,D.G Kahn,Muzfer Grah,Rahim Yar Khan and Rajanpur.

It is also the challenge for the government of Pakistan to get this project completed because in Baluchistan there are different movements for freedom, in khaber pakhtoon khwa there is threats of talibnization and timely different bomb blasts, which are obviously threats for stopping this project. In Baluchistan, this project can be disturbed with the help of neighboring countries .these dangers are also kept in mind in different meetings .if these dangers prevail for a long time, then what will be of this mega project of CPEC.

However at present only eastern part is going to be built so there is no security risk but when western part of this project will be started there is obvious risk of security and government of Pakistan has to face security problems.

Apart of this, there is also a a security risk from province for this mega project. In this, criminal minds of the northern side of Sindh and political and criminal forces of Karachi can also create problems for this project. For this, there must be a proper and effective strategy planning for the security risks. Similarly, there is also security risk in the province of Punjab as there has been a a complete network of terrorism of restricted organizations in the main cities of Punjab such as Lahore, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi for the last eight years.

This project is important and valuable for this region but our neighboring country India has opposite this project at the international level .India doesn't want the completion of this project. India has also started a campaign against this project at the international firms .regarding this opposition the prime minister of India has visited China twice in a brief period of six months

So we can’t avoid the threats from India as well .India wants that there billions of dollars should be invested in the Bangla Desh,China,India,Myanmar (BCIM) project instead of Gawader CPEC .This BCIM project will make China get access from its land lock Kunming, capital of the Yunnan province of China and to the eastern_ northern area of India and passing through Myanmar finally will reach the Bay of Bengal.(Karim & Islam, 2018)

At present China has the strongest economy after America .From the last 35 years the economy of china has jumped wonderingly .in 1979, Dengxioping President of China brought reforms in the economical politics and in the light of their polices ,the international door of investment remained wide open. During that time Chinese government brought economic development and its economy increased unbelievably.

Features of Chinese Speedily Developed Economy

• During the last ten years Chinese economy got 10% increase constantly per year.

• In 1980 china had purchasing power $299 GDP and it’s increased to $13,800 GDP.

• In 1978, china had an extra amount from expenses 507 billion dollars that increased up to 71 trillion dollars in 2005.

• Industrialization and manufacturing are two main pillars for the development of china .these both fields give 46.8% share in the progress of China .we can also gives from this point that china uses as much cement in a year as America used in the last complete century.

• In 2011, china was the world’s largest steel producing country .it produced 45% world’s steel.

• In 1978, china used to manufacture 200 air conditioner per year and the quantity increased upto2 billions 30 lac air conditioner in 2001.

It is clear that from the last 35 years struggle, China aroused as the world’s most powerful economical country .now the policies of china about economy are solid and requirements for energy production such as coal, oil and gas is the first priority for provision.

The electricity production of china was 1073 MW that is twice greater than America and 53 times greater than Pakistan’s production.Now it is basic need of china to import coal, gas and oil from other country for the required production of electricity .for this necessity of coal, gas and oil china wants to have different projects. China also intend to work on BICM project as well.




Baloch?stan's Strateg?c Role for Ch?na

The construction of the port in southwest Pakistan is part of an important step in securing China's energy needs. Beijing will direct its energy to South and Southeast Asia, "where supply of oil, natural gas and other commodities is essential to China's economic development. China will face an equally powerful naval power, India, with prominent geographical advantages. 

The Chinese-built Gwadar port, which is located in the Balochistan province near the Strait of Hormuz, is a key oil shipping lane that may provide energy for transit from West China to the Persian Gulf. The Chinese presence in Gwadar will undoubtedly put the Indo-American hegemony over the Indian Ocean to the strain. In the Indo-US prospective power conflict, India is more likely to characterise the Indian Ocean than the China-China menace, given that the US wants to maintain its maritime dominance. In addition, China provides strategic footholds in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, which intimidates India and causes concern for the US in the face of the Strait of Hormuz. "Gwadar offers China a strategic position in the energy-rich Caspian region, giving an alternative trade route for western Xinjiang province, therefore easing trade through the deep seaport of Gwadar. Naturally, this would shorten the distance for China. . In addition to port use, the existing land link can support China's developing trade to Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa by reducing the coastline distance from 10,000 to 2,500 kilometres.(Lim, 2020)

Recommendations

Conclusion

References

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