Abstract

After the Second World War, USSR and the US started trying to increase their hegemony and were trying to persuade countries to make them align with them; specifically, they were trying to encourage the countries that were not associated with any of the superpowers. Russia's war with Ukraine is the most significant threat following the post-Cold War Era to the security of European and its stability. On February 24, 2022, Russia began a military strike against Ukraine along with a wide appearance, leading Ukraine to cut off full diplomatic connections with Russia. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned that the plans of Ukraine to participate in NATO are indeed a threat to Russia and has now voiced concern about NATO country's plans to expand in Ukraine. The research uses secondary sources like research articles and past published relevant material; it is a qualitative document analysis that focuses on the Russia Ukraine Crisis and critically analyzes its causes and prospects for the world community. 

Key Words

Russia Ukraine Crisis, Russia Ukraine War, Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Introduction

Ukraine has always played a crucial role in global security, albeit one that is occasionally disregarded. As a result, many analysts believe that in the future decades, international affairs will be dominated by a renewed struggle among great powers. In 2022, after an eight-year struggle, Russia's attack on Ukraine has become a watershed instant for European security. Since Russia's invasion began, Western aid has helped Ukraine in many areas, but several of its major cities have been destroyed, and one-quarter of its population has fled or been evacuated. A political solution may or may not materialize at this point. Ukraine's place in the globe, notably its budding connection with organizations like the European Union. (Masters, 2022)

Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, has been designated as a World Heritage Site. Russian forces surged into the heart of Severodonetsk, one of the final Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern Donbas area, on which Moscow is currently focusing its attack. In many aspects, the war for Severodonetsk resembles the battle for Mariupol, in which Russian-backed forces attempted to encircle the megacity while incessant shelling left most structures to rubble. As Russia wants to avoid losing more forces in civil fighting, the struggle highlights the key role of ordnance in the east of Ukraine. The loss of the megacity will likely free up Russian dogfaces for the upcoming attack on the Ukrainian metropolises of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which would be the Ukrainian forces' last bastion in the east. (Lovett, Grove, et al, 2022)

Around 400 trucks carrying ex-pats from southern Ukraine were detained for two to three days at a Russian checkpoint in Vasylivka, according to Ukrainian radio Suspilne. According to the broadcaster, the buses are transporting a large number of families with children and young newborns. From Kherson to Berdiansk, most of the vehicles were imported from Ukraine. Ukrainian exiles must pass through Vasylivka, Russia's largest Russian-controlled checkpoint, on their route back to Ukraine. It's in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine. Mariupol, the Ukrainian harborage megacity that had been subjected to months of brutal hail before surrendering to Russian forces, has affluent residents in Berdiansk. Many families are still attempting to flee to the west since the situation in Berdiansk has "deteriorated," according to Starch. (Wright, et al, 2022)

Then-President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit to the frontlines in northeastern Ukraine, marking a victory for his forces, this month, Russia's second-largest municipality drove back the Russian military from its outskirts, following months of shelling that killed tens of thousands of civilians and forced tens of thousands to flee. When Moscow stormed Kharkiv, which is close to the Russian border, on Feb. 24, it was part of a two-pronged campaign in the north of the country, intending to seize both the municipality and the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian military withdrew Russian flags from cosmopolises north of Kyiv in a matter of weeks, while widespread shelling of Kharkiv halted only this month. Since the start of the war, Zelensky has spent most of his time in the capital, but he has made frequent trips to cosmopolises north of Kyiv. Passages to another country's corridor have been rare. Thousands of citizens who fled Kharkiv in the early days of the conflict have started to return, but the city remains hazardous. 

According to Oleh Synehubov, the indigenous governor, nine residents were murdered when Russian soldiers shelled the municipality on Thursday, including a 5-month-old infant and her father. The governor claimed on Facebook that 19 other people were injured, including the child's mother, who is still in bad condition. In the wake of military failures, Moscow has restricted its war goals and focused its attention and force on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where it once had a significant presence. (Bigg, 2022)

Russia Ukraine Crisis: Brief Analysis

In the 2014 war that had already begun, almost a third of this region was already been captured by the Russian forces (proxy), but Russia wanted to seize all of it. During the invasion, approximately 10 million people were banished and evacuated, and numerous towns and cities of Ukraine were attacked and bombed to the extent that they killed hundreds and thousands of citizens (Psaropoulos, 2022). Moreover, on February 24, 2022, Putin defended and justified the invasion by declaring the dismantling of the military capability of Ukraine and claiming it was incapable and weak to defend it. 

This one-to-one invasion and annexation of the military became responsible for the death of over a thousand civilians, and it led to the migration of millions of Ukrainians to the neighboring countries, including Poland etc. (Sestanovich et al., 2022). Along with all this, Russia moved towards or near their adjoined border of Ukraine with all their armed weapons and military troops, and this movement, however, indicated that Russia had been planning the Invasion of Ukraine since the year 2022. It has been perceived that the current and ongoing conflict has tense the relations between US and Ukraine and also enlarged the chances of an even more extensive European war or conflict.

Moreover, not only Ukraine but the US had a strained relationship with many other western countries and mainly in Europe. The reason is that over many years, numerous countries have been dependent on Russia for the energy supply, and since the cold war, the US has been observing this Russian strategy to make other countries dependent on it in terms of resources (Krishna, 2022). 

According to Kammer et al. (2022), the invasion by Russia of Ukraine not only affected the population and caused calamities to humanity but also it has affected the entire world's economy and it has made economic growth slowed and increased the rate of inflation to a great extent. The first impact that this Russia-Ukraine crisis might cause is almost upon the high prices of the necessities which are food and also over the energy, while having increased demand and lower incomes. Secondly, the economies of the neighbouring countries might witness unsettled and disturbed patterns of trade and also in the supply chain. Thirdly, there will be a reduced number of investors and businessmen or personalities ready to indulge in buying assets which would lead to a greater financial crisis. 

Ukraine might experience food crises due to the conflict with Russia as the output of agriculture might decline from a third this current year that as warned by Syngenta. The Ch. Executive officer Ukraine might witness a shortage of food for the helpless citizens; even years later this conflict will end. Furthermore, he hopes that these food and shelter crises do not exaggerate to the level where the food authorities or securities become considerate towards this matter. He added that the lands have already been affected by the floods, pest devastation, scarcity in Europe, along with the reduction of crop yields in America. (Rana, 2022)

According to Sacko, J. & Mayaki, I. (2022), both the countries, including Russia and Ukraine, have been the major exporters of sunflower and wheat to the country of Africa even way before the crisis began. However, Russia is the world's largest and major exporter of fertilizers, and if there is a shortage of fertilizers worldwide, then the risk of increased food prices will be higher due to its persistent and unstoppable impact on agriculture and food production and security. Russia is also the third main producer of oil after the US and Saudi Arabia worldwide, so there will surely be disruptions and disturbances in the process of oil globally, which will directly lead to higher prices of fuel and increased food production costs.

Ciuriak, D. (2022) suggested that the major impact of the Russia and Ukraine war has been on the economics, which is identified as catastrophic. It is facing a huge shrinkage in terms of the economy due to the destruction of its infrastructure of the economy of Ukraine. There is an increased obstruction of trade and deterioration of the workforce because of the mobilization of the country's military. It also had several causalities and death due to war and huge displacement of homes. Soon after the war started, many Ukrainian people having businesses had to helplessly shut down entirely, and the rest of the businesses left are being run on borderline revenues. As per the reports of UNDP (2022), about 90 per cent of the population of Ukraine could drop beneath the line of poverty.

Sheather, J. (2022) says that wars are not only responsible for destroying the bodies or minds of the people, but also it shatters the origins of the well-being of human beings, break the communities of humans along with their internal bonds, and places they founded to live in forever. Wars, conflicts, and crisis that start for no matter what reason goes down to several generations and cause some hidden and apparent destructions. The trauma that is caused by the war cannot be eliminated even if the war is stopped because when a single person is killed in a war, then indirectly, it mentally kills the family of a bunch of people.

Not only health but war also destroys the environment and degrades it, and the infrastructure of civilian needs has been affected by the Russia and Ukraine war as there is less access to pure, clean, and freshwater, an upswing of sanitary issues, no constant supply of food and contagious infections and diseases are evolving and emerging. Timothy Snyder named his book and referred to Ukraine and the territories that are adjacent to it 'the bloodlines' because it has been a target of ruthless organizations and regimes. They were killed by starvation due to Stalin's strategy and policy, which was intentional at the time of Hitler, he killed thousands of Ukrainians, and millions of the soldiers of Ukraine were dead in the Red Army.

Historical Perceptions

In 2013, Ukrainians kicked their president Viktor Yanukovych who wanted to be loyal to Russia but didn't sign a trade agreement with Europe. Later a government who were loyal to Europe was elected, which triggered Putin as he claimed that a majority of Ukraine wanted to join Russia. He also feared that Ukraine would join NATO, which would be a threat to Russia. In 2014, Russia attacked and annexed Crimea by claiming to help people who wanted to take over parts of Ukraine by providing them with soldiers and weapons. This invasion left 14,000 people dead.  (David, 2022)

At the start of 2014, many Russian troops wearing unmarked army uniforms invaded Crimea, which is a strategically important peninsula present on the Black Sea which serves as an important trade route. This invasion was a result of the removal of Viktor Yanukovych, the president of Ukraine, who favoured Russia while Ukrainians favoured Europe. Later, Russian separatists backed by Putin with Russian troops and military equipment captured two more regions of eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk), where rebel republics were formed. In the same week, Putin announced the independence of these regions and stationed Russian troops to mark the territory. (Kingsley, 2022)

In January 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to persuade US President Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO, which Russia didn't like. This step provoked Putin as he was against Ukraine joining NATO, later, he started sending Russian troops to Ukraine's border allegedly for training exercises, but US and Ukraine feared that it was not a training exercise. In reaction to this movement, the US warned Russia that stricter sanctions would be imposed if Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin demanded a guarantee that NATO will not interfere in Eastern Europe and Ukraine as he claimed that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and not a proper state anyway. (Staff reporter, 2022)

In the spring of 2021, Russia starts moving a large number of troops near Ukraine's border by calling them training exercises. Later in November 2021, images captured by satellites revealed that the number of deployed Russian troops near Ukraine's border had reached almost 100,000, which made it clear that this was not a training exercise. In December 2021, when Russia stationed its forces on the border, it presented a demand of pulling NATO away from European Ukraine and banning Ukraine from ever joining NATO (Staff reporter, 2022).

Soon after, the tension between Moscow and Washington rose when US intelligence officials revealed that Russia was moving its army for a potential invasion with almost 175.000 troops. This step from Putin was not a surprise as he demanded a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, while Ukraine's president requested Joe Biden for NATO membership. The new crisis caused a wave of fear of a renewal of war on European soil just a week before a virtual meeting between Biden and Putin. As a reaction to the movement of the Russian army, Biden reacted that he would make sure that sanctions on Russia are harsh enough that it increases the cost of invading Ukraine if Russia plans on doing so (Harris, 2021)

As tension rose between Russia and the West, Russia presented a list of demands to lower tensions over Ukraine. These demands included a guarantee that Ukraine would never be NATO and the deployment of NATO's troops and weapons should be restricted. Moreover, NATO's troops will be limited to the point they were before the eastward expansion in 1997. Russia demanded that NATO should stop its expansion in the former USSR which also included offering membership to Ukraine. Lastly, when asked about the demands from the Russian foreign minister, he said that our warnings should be taken seriously if the west wants to lower these tensions (Roth, 2021)

To reduce tension between Russia and the West caused by the moving of the Russian army near Ukraine’s border, Russia submitted a demand draft that needed to be fulfilled by the West. One of the major demands was the ban of Ukraine and over ex-soviet nations from ever joining NATO and to make sure that NATO's troops and weapons are called back from Central and Eastern Europe. Russia further demanded that NATO should stop conducting military drills at Russia's borders. Moreover, Russia demanded veto power over Ukraine's membership in NATO, which the West had already denied in the past. Following the publishing of the draft, Russia's foreign minister stated that Russia's relationship with the US is at a dangerous point, and NATO's deployment near its border has caused unacceptable security threats to Russia (Staff Reporter, 2021)

The tension between Russia and the West has been rising since Russia started moving its troops near the Ukrainian border. Ukraine's defence minister said that about 90,000 Russian troops had been stationed near the border, while NATO's secretary-general warned that they see a significant Russian military buildup while the concentration seems unusual. This situation raised an alarm that maybe Russia is planning on invading Ukraine over the dispute over NATO's membership. Even though Russia denied any intention to Invade Ukraine and claimed that these buildups were a part of military training, but the threat was still there as Russia was trying to hide the military movement more than usual (Amiel, 2021)

War Time Analysis

On the day when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was also witnessed the Pakistani Prime Minister also visited Russia and held a meeting with Putin. Some people think that Pakistan is making its relationship strong with Russia to compete with different superpowers. After a couple of days, the UN asked all the nations to condemn the invasion of Russia, but 35 nations did not vote in favour of Ukraine, including India, Pakistan, and China as well. UN asked countries to favour Ukraine because as a sovereign state, everyone should condemn the actions of Russia. This might also happen because Pakistan in a recent policy, announced that it would be friendly with global powers (Chaudhry, 2022). The French president also requested them to open the corridor for the citizen of Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy. This request came right after the evacuation of the student from Ukraine (Staff Reporter, 2022).

The economy of Ukraine will collapse by approximately 45.1% because the invasion has stopped the production of business and exports of the country; this was confirmed by World Bank. While on the other hand, the GDP of Russia might also decline by 11.2% due to the implementation of a different kind of financial sanction. The overall trade of the European region might get affected by almost 30.7% due to the ongoing war and trade barriers (Staff Reporter, 2022).  

After the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions from the UN, the stock market has also collapsed by 33% incurring a loss of almost $71 Billion. Before the sanction was imposed on Russia, Putin called 37 businessmen to discuss the measure to be taken in the coming days as they know that sanctions will be imposed after the invasion started and asked them to understand the current situation of the country. Some of them were new and some were well aware of sanctions that were imposed after 2014, but they were asked to manage their business quite wisely. (Abou-Sabe, 2022)

In the latest interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said whether Russia should come to a peaceful agreement or they should leave the international organization for a long period. He also talked about the increasing strikes of Russia in the east and south of the country. He said that with the limited resources they fought with Russia in a way they were not expecting, the leftover from the Soviet Union helped them a lot, and the funding from friendly nations also helped them a lot. He also asked the EU to stop trading with Russia (Staff Reporter. 2022).

On 14th April, the Russian missile cruiser Moskva was sunk into the sea while being towed. The defence ministry of Russia said that ammunition detonated on the cruiser and as a result of which, a fire erupted. The fire caused severe damage to the cruiser and the stability of the cruiser was also damaged. There was also a storm in the sea which was not in favor of the cruiser and led to sunk of the cruiser. The crew which was on board was evacuated safely before the cruiser sunk into the sea (Staff Reporter). 

The United States provided some training to the military of Ukraine and deported them back to Ukraine to fight side by side with their force. Ukrainian forces were getting trained under US special operation command in Biloxi. Ukraine forces received training about communication systems and patrol craft operations while learning the advanced technology for war which the US agreed to provide to the Ukrainian forces. The switchblades drone can also be used by Ukrainian forces in war, and it can do a significant amount of damage if operated in the correct way (Macias, 2022).




Prospects for the Global Community

Josephs, J. (2022) says that the major effect of the Russia and Ukraine war has been on the financial matters, which are expressed as disastrous. It is confronting a colossal shrinkage in terms of the economy due to the pulverization of the framework of the economy in Ukraine. There's an expanded obstacle to exchange and disintegration of the workforce since the mobilization of the country's military. It, too, had a few causalities and passing due to war and massive relocation of homes. Before long after the war began, numerous Ukrainian individuals having businesses had closed them down totally, and the rest of the businesses cleared out were being run on borderline incomes. As per the reports, the populace of Ukraine may drop underneath the line of destitution.

Every passing day the war is becoming bigger; this war is pulling in more countries; here is thought can we call this world war this world war three a British news outlet has a legit page on world war three currently is flooded with the news of the Ukraine war or geopolitical experts believe we are already in world war 3. Our world is already fighting multiple wars experts believe China's conflict with Taiwan will turn into a military conflict sometime in the next decade China is also fighting with multiple countries in the south china sea the Philippian, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, India, and China are caught in a standoff there is a conflict between Iran and Israel, Iran and united states and north Korea are arch enemies. There is also a war in yamen and Syria Israel and Palestine are fresh out of a bloody battle so more of the countries are fighting with other countries; what lies ahead is this is a prelude to world war 3, is this the end of the post-cold war era or is this a cold-war two or are we seeing a new cold war (Most, 2022).

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine also impacts Pakistan's economy because mostly Pakistani resources are exported from different countries our import is less than export. American and his supporters are band Russian things so in this action Russian reactor also bands their resources to the European countries or also increase the price to other counties so Pakistan purchases oil at a high price from Russia (Somroo AAH 2022).

If the price of oil is high so automatically food prices or vehicle prices are automatically high. Or on the other side recently Pakistan also tour in Russia during the war so which creates a bad impact on America and now they use the carrot and stick policy for Pakistanis to demand their requirements so which increases prices or imports also our export decrease. (Nazir, 2014)

Not only physically but the Ukraine Russian war also effect psychologically. The war is affecting the mental health of the people. All these are the questions that will be alarming them. A warlike emergency seems to grant anyone serious discomfort individuals can go into sadness. PTSD (Post Traumatic Stretch Clutter) developed might afterward the depression. The people were very upset, stressed, and tired. Their houses were bombed, and they have nothing left most of the people are not able to speak due to war trauma. (Javanbakht, A. 2022)

Tandon, A, (2022). analyze that every war produces psychological reaction we have called it shell-shocked and battle fatigue we have also there is another thing that you see over and over again. But one thing is that wars are environmentally dirty places you have toxins weather and its chemicals or down power lines so we often see the constellation of physical problems or psychological problems after the war. The soldiers who are wounded during war tens of thousands of them now have traumatic brain injury amputations you hear a lot about amputations are the kind of the cream of the crop they are the ones that get all the publicity they do very well with the prosthesis which you don't hear about so much it's a people with their faces blown off from bombs who are down a brook in the burn unit that is much harder to deal with. Also, many peoples lost their mother, father, siblings, cousins or any other family members. 

Death, destruction, and forced displacement are only the result of every war. Due to the Ukraine-Russian war, the world faces human catastrophe which means loss of nutrition and food crisis arises in the future as said by World Bank president David Malpass. World Bank also estimates that there might be a huge or 37% bounce in nourishment cost. Also, the supply of food around the world was affected by this war because both Ukraine and Russia were called the breadbasket of Europe (Staff Reporter, 2022).

Findings

Conclusion

Ukraine is now supported by the UN, EU, G7, and many other countries around the globe over the Russian violence. Over this matter, the UN conducted in which the majority accepted that Russia is doing wrong and it must halt its invasion and call out its troop from Ukraine. On the other hand, the USA also support Ukraine in this matter, they are backing the Ukrainian army with advanced weapons to fight against the Russian army apart from weapon USA also provided financial aid of around $800 million to Ukraine in this crucial time. To show its disagreement USA also cut off its trade relationship with Russia and also banned Russia from the international trade market. On the 26th of February 2022, a large-scale banned on the banking of SWIFT was imposed, so Russia cannot use its central bank reverses in the USA which broke the back of Russia.

Currently, Ukraine is fighting alone against the Russian mass military. No other European country came forward to send their troops to help Ukraine. NATO also backed out because Ukraine is part of NATO. USA who was backing Ukraine with arms also turn over sending its army to fight, at this point the interference of the USA is questionable because of what benefit it gives him while supporting Ukraine as it is not his major trading ally nor the invasion of Russia in Ukraine have a direct impact or threat to USA security. Diplomatically the USA is playing the game, first, he pushed Ukraine to join NATO so that through this he will get proximity to Russia as Ukraine and the Russian border are very close. And this is the main cause Putin is strongly against Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Now, these days this conflict created a huge concern regarding Oil and Gas because Russia is one of the major exporters of Oil and Gas in the world. The sanctions imposed on Russia banned him from selling these resources which will create a shortage of Oil and Gas around the world, furthermore create a price hike. Another worrying aspect is that both countries are also the major producers of wheat and now the production is at a halt and intensifying the situation as it might create food crises around the globe.

This conflict has put Russia and Ukraine in financial crises. The economic system of Ukraine has decreased by 44.10 % as all the trade is stopped due to the war. On the other side the Russian economy diminished by 11.2% and it is expected that this figure may increase due to several sanctions. European economic system is impacted by this war and the halting of trade and the figure is 30.7%.

To sum up, the war is still ongoing and it is not defined how far it goes and how worse it can become. But if the situation remains the same, then the outcomes will be disastrous for the whole world, especially European countries. Because Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, oil, and gas and if the supplies of these resources remain closed it will lead to global crises affecting hundreds of millions of lives. Secondly, Russia is the biggest exporter of fertilizers as well at this stage, he is not allowed to trade, and if the fertilizer is not exported to major agricultural countries, many agriculture-based countries will collapse. Pakistan will also face a harmful impact because major of its wheat is imported from Russia. So this matter should be sorted out as soon as possible otherwise the outcomes will be uncountable and the world will suffer drastically.

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